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The research firm estimates that by 2035, financial derivatives, including event contracts linked to commodities, cryptocurrencies and stocks, will account for 49% of turnover on yes/no exchanges, topping sports to become the largest volume driver. The research firm sees event contracts tied to key performance indicators (KPIs) leading the charge.

“We expect new products such as KPI markets, which allow users to trade a single corporate metric, such as production, deliveries, or subscriber growth, rather than the stock price itself,” observe the analysts. “Further, perp futures are expanding from crypto to commodities and single stock perps.”

Some exchange operators already filed plans to introduce KPI-linked event contracts. Those derivatives would be tied to metrics such as corporate earnings or, in more nuanced cases, Apple iPhone shipments or Tesla deliveries — just two examples — in a given quarter.

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By 2026, the technology had already been tested across several seasons of top-level competitions including the Premier League and Champions League. AI now trades more than 70% of bets across Kambi’s network, including all football and tennis.

The 2026 World Cup was therefore the culmination of five years of development that had embedded AI throughout Kambi’s trading operations.

“In simple terms, what we have undertaken is a shift from machine-assisted human trading to human-assisted machine trading,” Lamb explains.

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She mentions an ongoing lawsuit against Meta, which will be expected to be very challenging. The VNLOK-filed litigation is seeking to take action against the illegal gambling ads allowed to filter through to consumers across Meta’s various platforms.

“There are about 70,000 ads every single month for illegal operators or offerings – and there’s only two or three thousand from the legal market. It’s really unbalanced and they should regulate more.

“As a trade organisation we are trying to work together with our regulator because we feel that we have a shared interest of getting a good legal market. And of course we’re talking to politicians to do something about putting illegal operators on notice. I think it is really positive at the moment in the Netherlands that the operators have really teamed up,” Petra continues.