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What is Candy Monsta?
– In the wake of a consequential ruling by the US Court of Appeals for the Ninth Circuit against Kalshi, two operators are taking separate paths in an effort to overturn the decision. On 28 August, the Ninth Circuit ruled in a 3-0 decision that sports event contracts do not qualify as federally regulated swaps under the Commodity Exchange Act. Earlier this week, Kalshi filed for an en banc re-hearing with the Ninth Circuit, this time before an 11-judge review. Robinhood, meanwhile, filed a petition of certiorari with the Supreme Court in a move to effectively bypass the Ninth Circuit. It is widely believed that a circuit split between the Ninth Circuit and a separate decision by the Third Circuit will prompt the Supreme Court to take up the case.
– Real App, a social sports app built around live play-by-play, named FanDuel as its first prediction market partner. The partnership brings FanDuel’s odds and contextual markets directly into the app’s live sports experience. Fanatics Sports & Casino is adding some upgrades to its Fair Play offering. Among the changes, Fanatics has added first-half injury protection for player props. The option proved to be valuable for fans in Wednesday’s opener when Seattle Seahawks quarterback Sam Darnold left the game after the team’s fifth offensive play.
– According to the American Gaming Association, an estimated $40 billion will be wagered on the NFL via prediction markets this year. Last week, on the first full day of the 2026 college football season, Kalshi reported nearly $250 million in trading activity on college football.
What is Candy Monsta?
Marantelli identifies White Swan and Susquehanna as two firms operating at industrial scale in parlays, with Jump Trading, Mojo and DL Trading among the possible leading group. Below them are numerous smaller syndicates, some managing between $5 million and $10 million, alongside sports-specific specialists.
Enda Kendrick, chief executive of service provider Veltium, similarly says the largest UK and European sharp-betting groups have moved rapidly into US prediction markets. He believes there are also more than 100 smaller operations, ranging from individual traders to teams of around 10, interested in entering the regulated US market.
Yet the presence of professional counterparties complicates the customer-facing idea that prediction markets merely allow users to trade opinions with one another. As Kendrick puts it, two ordinary customers are not going to place $10 million or $20 million behind the Philadelphia Eagles. Markets at that scale require institutions.
What is Candy Monsta?
We like Manchester City loanee Jack Harrison to get in amongst the goals in a win for The Whites and that’s at a very tasty price given Jack Grealish is likely to be out for six weeks and the Villains are also missing Matty Cash, who would have been man-marking Harrison if fit. In fact, this is our bet of the week.
Our tip: Jack Harrison to score and Leeds to win (4/1)
Chelsea vs. Manchester United (Sunday, 4.30pm GMT kick-off)
