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However, LSR noted that traditional game outcomes are no longer reliable indicators of bookmaker profitability, largely due to the rapid growth of same-game parlays and player props.
In the Las Vegas-based Circa Survivor contest, which drew over 25,000 entries entering Week 1, more than 8,000 entries were eliminated in the opening slate—most knocked out when the 8.5-point favorite Chargers fell to the Cardinals. That upset served as a proxy for the wider market, ruining countess parlay tickets across major sportsbooks.
Looking ahead to Week 2, bettors continue to chase high-scoring games. At BetMGM, Overs represent three of the five most-bet game totals by ticket count: Vikings-Bears (Over 48), Saints-Ravens (Over 46), and Panthers-Falcons (Over 44).
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The bitter, longstanding feud between Station Casinos and the Culinary Union in Las Vegas took another turn this month, this time to Washington, DC and the US Supreme Court.
On 4 September, Chief Justice John Roberts denied Station’s emergency request for a stay of a federal appeals court decision that ordered the company’s Red Rock Casino Resort Spa in Summerlin to comply with a National Labor Relations Board mandate and bargain in good faith with the union following a failed labour vote in late 2019. Roberts gave no explanation for the denial.
The NLRB ruled after the election that Red Rock took steps to prevent a fair union vote, and Red Rock sued in response, although the ruling was upheld by the US Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia last month. After the court denied a rehearing request on 6 August, it also subsequently denied Station’s request for a stay pending SCOTUS relief on 24 August.
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As of 3 pm ET, the Rams had odds of 64% on Kalshi to upend the Niners in Melbourne. For a trader who risks $100, a Rams’ win would return $150.15. The Rams, which added Pro Bowl defenders Myles Garrett and Trent McDuffie in the offseason, are considerable favourites to capture Super Bowl LXI in February.
With odds of 17% on Kalshi’s futures market, the Rams are the only NFL team to open the season with double-digit odds. The probability translates to +488 in American odds, a figure that is regarded as comparatively low for a Super Bowl favourite. But history is not on the Rams’ side – all of the last 25 NFL teams to open a season with futures odds of +500 or lower have failed to win the Super Bowl, according to Yahoo Sports.
In May, the NFL sent a letter to the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission with a list of certain event contracts it deemed objectionable. By July, the league doubled down with public comments to the CFTC after the agency issued draft regulations for the contracts. The NFL cited props on player injuries, penalty totals and missed field goals as those that fit the bill. Goodell, however, conceded that the NFL has held discussions regarding prediction markets as public policy evolves.
