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Initial reaction from investors was largely unfavourable. Genius shares plunged 13% on 18 Sept., falling 17% for the week. The data provider closed the session at $5.64 per share, well below the $6.19 price when it announced the Legend acquisition in February.
The launch of Prediction.com comes amid a strategic integration phase following Genius Sports’ acquisition of Legend.
It coincided with the beginning of the NFL season in the US, viewed as a peak commercial period for sports data monetisation. Genius also maintains partnerships with DraftKings and FanDuel, both of which signed extensions to remain as NFL partners ahead of this season.
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Rossi argues that there is no single ingredient behind the operator’s success in Peru. Betsson has made Peru a key growth market in LatAm, which for the first time in Q2 took over as its largest region by revenue, accounting for 36% of its Q2 revenue at €310.2 million.
“I always like to say that it’s a mix of different factors,” Rossi suggests. “As a matter of fact, Peru has always been one of our driving markets in LatAm, and you always have the attention from the business to be kept on a quite substantial level of investment.
“But that is not just marketing. It also goes into product and into the way that you develop your offering and how you localise what you present or you offer to your customers. And without leaving out local talent, because of course the success also comes from the level of understanding of the market and the cultural embracement and to understand what the customers are really looking into when they have to choose between operators.
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Announced on Wednesday, the all-share deal is expected to close in Q2 2027, forming a combined group with a pro forma adjusted EBITDA of around €2 billion ($2.3 billion).
Cirsa’s implied pro forma value, before synergies, corresponds to an multiple of approximately 6x its expected 2026 EV/EBITDA which will be between €800 million and €820 million, according to the operator’s most recent earnings.
According to a joint press release, the combined company would hold “undisputed leadership positions” in both Italy and Spain, with the group set to hold a duel listing on the Milan and Spanish stock exchanges.