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There are no SCOTUS-prediction market contracts currently on Kalshi but Polymarket lists a 41% probability that the court will accept an event contract case by 31 December.
A hearing before the Supreme Court would be the culmination of what has been the biggest sports betting-related development since PASPA. Perhaps no other issue has united gaming stakeholders from various companies, tribes, states and regulators.
Beginning with the US presidential elections in November 2024, when prediction markets catapulted into mainstream culture, their rise has been undeniable. Kalshi and Polymarket have seen their valuations balloon to $40 billion and $21 billion, respectively, and the majority of the top US bookmakers have scrambled to expand into the prediction space in various forms, either by building their own exchanges, acquiring existing ones or engaging in market-making.
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“We continue to view regulation as the largest risk to prediction markets,” says the analyst. “While industry growth remains robust, adverse legal outcomes could materially impact sports contract availability and long-term adoption.”
Amid a string of losses in federal appellate courts, it appears increasingly prediction markets are angling to take their cases to the U.S. Supreme Court, banking that the high court will allow them to continue offering sports event contracts free of state gambling regulations.
Some legal experts and members of the investment community believe it’s possible the Supreme Court could hear a prediction market case at some point over the next six or seven months.
How to play Frutz
“Scott is a beloved member of the Luxor and MGM Resorts family, and we are relieved to hear that he is recovering,” an MGM Resorts spokesman told news outlets on Friday night. “We are thinking of him and wish him strength as he receives the care and support he needs.”
Carrot Top’s Friday and Saturday (Sept. 19) shows at Luxor’s Atrium Showroom were canceled. The residency is dark on Sundays.
The Florida native—known on his driver’s license as Scott Thompson—was facing legal troubles, according to news reports.